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논문

Effective control measures considering spatial heterogeneity to mitigate the 2016-2017 avian influenza epidemic in the Republic of Korea

등록일자 :

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0218202

  • 저자고영석,이종걸,정은옥
  • 학술지PLoS ONE (1932-6203), 14(6), 1 ~ 15
  • 등재유형SCIE
  • 게재일자 20190613
During the winter of 2016-2017, an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) ledto high mortality in poultry and put a serious burden on the poultry industry of the Republic of Korea. Effective control measures considering spatial heterogeneity to mitigate the HPAI epidemic is still a challenging issue. Here we develop a spatial-temporal compartmental model that incorporates the culling rate as a function of the reported farms and farm density in each town. The epidemiological and geographical data of two species, chickens and ducks, from the farms in the sixteen towns in Eumseong-gun and Jincheon-gun are used to find the best-fitted parameters of the metapopulation model. The best culling radius to maximize the final size of the susceptible farms and minimize the total number of culled farms is calculated from the model.

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