Industrial Problem Solution
Development of an emergency repair cost forecast repair model for ships
2020-06-121. Company introduction
The Marine Police Agency is a central administrative agency in charge of operations such as security and rescue, maritime traffic safety management, maritime security, and marine environment conservation. The Equipment Management Division of the Equipment Engineering Bureau that requested the problem manages about 300 vessels owned by the Marine Police Agency and is in charge of repair work in the event of a failure.
2. Problem Background and Summary
If a ship of the National Maritime Police Agency suddenly breaks down, we will carry out emergency repairs, but if the total annual cost of the current emergency repair costs is not predicted, the allocated budget and the actual cost will not match There are many cases. The goal is to create a mathematical model that analyzes the scale and trend of urgent repair costs using mathematical methods and predicts appropriate emergency repair costs. It is necessary to formulate a formula for predicting the scale of emergency repair costs based on an analysis of the correlation between some characteristics of ships (tonnage, usage, year, etc.) and emergency repair costs.
3. Solving Process
By substituting the tonnage and the number of ships for each type of ship that will be operated in the following year, we derived an emergency repair prediction model that can predict the scale of emergency repair costs. The correlation between ship tonnage and emergency repair cost was analyzed by applying a linear regression analysis model, and it was confirmed that the coefficient of determination was 0.95 or more, which was very accurate.
4. Ripple effects and future plans
A report of the troubleshooting results has been ted to the Marine Police Agency and the research is complete. In addition to 2018, by using the mathematical model that has been built, it is expected that the amount of emergency repair costs incurred each year will be continuously predicted, and that emergency repairs for ships can be carried out satisfactorily. "The coefficient of determination of the mathematical prediction model for emergency repairs has been derived and can be used as an objective basis for future budget planning for emergency repairs," said Jung-wook, Chief of Equipment Management, Marine Police Agency.
1. Company introduction
The Marine Police Agency is a central administrative agency in charge of operations such as security and rescue, maritime traffic safety management, maritime security, and marine environment conservation. The Equipment Management Division of the Equipment Engineering Bureau that requested the problem manages about 300 vessels owned by the Marine Police Agency and is in charge of repair work in the event of a failure.
2. Problem Background and Summary
If a ship of the National Maritime Police Agency suddenly breaks down, we will carry out emergency repairs, but if the total annual cost of the current emergency repair costs is not predicted, the allocated budget and the actual cost will not match There are many cases. The goal is to create a mathematical model that analyzes the scale and trend of urgent repair costs using mathematical methods and predicts appropriate emergency repair costs. It is necessary to formulate a formula for predicting the scale of emergency repair costs based on an analysis of the correlation between some characteristics of ships (tonnage, usage, year, etc.) and emergency repair costs.
3. Solving Process
By substituting the tonnage and the number of ships for each type of ship that will be operated in the following year, we derived an emergency repair prediction model that can predict the scale of emergency repair costs. The correlation between ship tonnage and emergency repair cost was analyzed by applying a linear regression analysis model, and it was confirmed that the coefficient of determination was 0.95 or more, which was very accurate.
4. Ripple effects and future plans
A report of the troubleshooting results has been ted to the Marine Police Agency and the research is complete. In addition to 2018, by using the mathematical model that has been built, it is expected that the amount of emergency repair costs incurred each year will be continuously predicted, and that emergency repairs for ships can be carried out satisfactorily. "The coefficient of determination of the mathematical prediction model for emergency repairs has been derived and can be used as an objective basis for future budget planning for emergency repairs," said Jung-wook, Chief of Equipment Management, Marine Police Agency.